Important Announcement #12
DATE: July 19, 1996
TO: Industry Colleagues And Friends
FROM: Stiernberg Consulting
SUBJECT: Fads, Trends, And Latest News!
More Big News: This is to share some ideas and update you on activities since Important Announcement #11 was sent in March 1996.
Fads vs. Trends: Will the Current Chaos Continue?
Now that we're into the fourth year of the Important Announcement series, it is intriguing to review past newsletters and see which ideas were fads and which were trends. Fads go in and out of fashion relatively quickly while trends endure. Think back to the 1970's. Citizens Band (CB) radios were part of a fad while personal computers became a long lasting trend.
In today's business, its especially challenging to differentiate fads vs. trends. There is so much technological and cultural change happening now that it boggles the mind and confounds business forecasters. Yet, we need to analyze what's happening and make business judgments accordingly. In her new book Clicking, author/futurist Faith Popcorn sums it up: "For marketers, trend knowledge is invaluable. To get to where the consumers are just before they get there--offering consumers what they didn't even know they wanted--spells success."
Constant change in the entertainment and communications industries run the risk of creating chaos on all levels. Technological standards exist in some areas (CEBus, MPEG2, ATM, IEEE 1394, etc.), but require time to gain market acceptance and prove commercial viability. From where we stand, things will be murky on the industry level and the consumer level for some time to come-- a real opportunity for trendsetters.
Three Key Trends (Not Fads)
Here are three trends which we believe are here to stay and are having a positive impact on our lives and businesses.
1. Personal computer as home appliance. Just a few years ago, skeptics doubted whether homeowners would purchase and use personal computers, let alone use them as home systems controllers or television monitors. In 1995, home PC's outsold televisions in North America! In 1996, major manufacturers are introducing integrated PC/TV units, PC-based home controllers, and PC's with built in video and telecommunications capability. It's a trend, not a fad.
2. Commercial transactions on the Internet. Remember when it was called the "Information Superhighway", that euphemism for a futuristic data pipeline which would change how we live and work? Not only has the Internet (especially the media-rich World Wide Web) caught on, but it's getting easier to buy merchandise and otherwise conduct business online. It's a trend, not a fad.
3. Alternative workplaces. First there was the mobile office: a portable computer with a fax/modem and a cellular phone. Then there was the home office: a place in the home for the computer, fax machine, and printer. Today there are more viable alternatives including telecommuting, corporate "hoteling", and satellite offices. It's a trend, not a fad.
Faxback Survey #12: How Do the Trends Affect You?
Technology impacts culture and vice versa. How many computers are in your home now relative to televisions? Do you use the Internet to transact business, either as a merchant or consumer? Do you work strictly from a traditional office, or include alternative officing in your routine?
Your feedback on this topic is valuable. Please respond via Faxback Survey #12 enclosed. Simply make a few notes and fax or mail as indicated. Results of the survey will be announced in Important Announcement #13.
Survey #11 Results: We Have Another Winner!
Thanks to those of you who responded to Faxback Survey #11. Seventy-one per cent of those responding said that they use their VCRs' timed recording features. Only 2% are happy with cable TV as it is now, but 40% said that the additional benefits of digital television need to cost the same or less as cable before they would consider switching.
The winner of the Being Digital book and the $25 American Express Gift Cheque is Dan Ferrario of Atlas/Soundolier, Fenton, MO. Congratulations!
See You At Upcoming Trade Events
We will be attending upcoming industry events and would like to know if you are planning to attend:
* ISC Expo, New York August 26-29, 1996
* CEDIA Expo, Dallas September 4-8, 1996
* Parks Forum 96, San Diego October 13-16, 1996
* Telecon XVI, Anaheim October 29-31, 1996
* AES, Los Angeles November 8-11, 1996
We are also presenting a seminar at the CEDIA Expo. Please let us know if you or someone from your company will be attending each of these key events. Simply check the appropriate box on the enclosed Faxback Survey #12.
Special Prize Drawing
The prize drawing is a regular feature of the Important Announcement Series. Here's how to enter: Returning the survey enters you in the special prize drawing. The prize this issue is a combination of the book Clicking and a $25 American Express Gift Cheque. On Monday, August 19, 1996, the winning survey will be drawn at random from the ones received by either fax or mail. Sound like fun? Please respond today!
About Stiernberg Consulting
We are business development consultants. Our clients include manufacturers, publishers, and trade associations in the electronics industry, with emphasis on entertainment and communications. We work on a wide range of projects from strategic planning and market development to event production, training seminars, and custom research.
Some of you have already met our capable office assistant, Yesenia Fernandez, in person or on the phone. She joined Stiernberg Consulting in March of 1995. Her part time position grew to full time since January of 1996. Welcome, Yesenia!
Let's Talk Soon!
We would like to share more information about our practice with you. Please request our recently updated (May 1996) Business Profile and Publications/Seminar Index by checking the box on Faxback Survey #12, or contact us via post, telephone, or electronic mail.